Itaú Unibanco and Bradesco, Brazil’s two largest banks, maintain their estimates of 2.2% to 2.5% Brazil GDP growth this year, although they warn that the next two months will be crucial for the government. This is due to the below-expected productive activity in December and slightly contradictory economic indicators in January.
The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) forecast fell from 3.47% last week to 3.40% today in the last Focus Bulletin released by Brazil Central Bank on Monday. For 2021, the rate was maintained at 3.75%. Focus also revised down the estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2.31% to 2.30%. From 2021 to 2023, it was kept at 2.50%. The exchange rate projection was also maintained at R$4.10 at the end of 2020.
The GDP of 83% of 193 countries grew faster than Brazil’s in the period 2010-2019, one of the worst decades of its economic expansion, according to a study by economist Marcel Balassiano of the Brazilian Institute of Economics of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Ibre / FGV). Based on data from the IMF, the report establishes an average growth of 1.3% per year in that period, almost a third of the world average (3.8% per year).
The International Monetary Fund improved its economic growth forecast for Brazil and projects a 2.2% increase in its GDP for this year and 2.3% by 2021. In its last “World Economic Outlook” the IMF says that this variation of 0.2% in relation to its projection in October 2019 is due to the approval of the Brazilian Pension Reform and improvements in the mining sector.