Markets will see R$39.5 billion ($9.3 billion) in share sales in the coming weeks, including the biggest offer since 2010, thanks to the government’s efforts to shed assets and a rush to stocks amid a hunt for returns. Development bank BNDES is leading the charge, unloading a stake worth almost R$24 billion in Petrobras, as well as shares of meatpacker JBS SA. Brazilian equity offerings rose 213% last year to R$115.1 billion.
After two years of expansion, Brazilian industrial production fell 1.1% in 2019, compared to the previous year, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The extractive industry was the one with the greatest negative influence on the results for 2019, decreasing 9.7%, pressured by the lower production of iron ore after the Brumadinho tragedy.
Brazil President Jair Bolsonaro sent a message to Congress saying that his legislative priorities for the year are the tax reform, the autonomy of the central bank, Eletrobras privatisation, entry to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), job creation and the enactment of a regulatory framework for public sanitation. Lawmakers returned from the Christmas break focusing on local elections in October, something that can hamper the passage of substantial laws this year.
Brazil posted a trade deficit of $1.745 billion in January, the first shortfall for the month of January in five years and an indication that trade might continue to be a drag on overall economic growth. The setback was fuelled more by a sharp fall in export, which were 20% down to $14.43 billion from the same month last year, rather than imports, which also fell 1.3% to $16.175 billion, Economy Ministry figures show.
The Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) forecast fell from 3.47% last week to 3.40% today in the last Focus Bulletin released by Brazil Central Bank on Monday. For 2021, the rate was maintained at 3.75%. Focus also revised down the estimate for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2.31% to 2.30%. From 2021 to 2023, it was kept at 2.50%. The exchange rate projection was also maintained at R$4.10 at the end of 2020.
Brazil unemployment rate fell to 11% In the quarter ended in December last year, totalling 11.6 million people out of work, according to the National Continuous Survey of Household Samples (PNAD Contínua), published today by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). Compared to the same period last year, there was a reduction of 520 thousand unemployed people, when the rate was 11.6%. The increase in informality was the main driver of the recovery.
Brazil federal government ended 2019 with a primary deficit of R$95.1 billion ($22.5 billion), the lowest fiscal loss in five years, the National Treasury reported. It was the sixth consecutive year that the government spending exceeded taxes and tax revenues. Only in 2014 the deficit in the Brazilian accounts managed to be lower than in 2019, when the accounts registered negative results of the order of R$23.5 billion.
Brazil’s federal public debt increased 9.5% in 2019 compared to the previous year, reaching a record R$ 4.248 million ($1.012 billion), the National Treasury Secretariat of the Ministry of Economy of Brazil reported. However, despite the increase, the 2019 Annual Financing Plan (PAF) was fulfilled, which established that the public debt could end last year between R$ 4.1 billion and R$ 4.3 billion.
Brazil may take advantage of low interest rates to issue a 20-year benchmark bond later this year if demand is sufficient, the country’s Treasury said, as it set out its 2020 debt forecasts and financing plans. Securities linked to the central bank’s benchmark Selic rate are expectred to account for between 40% and 44% of outstanding debt this year versus 38.9% last year, while fixed-rate securities will account for between 27% and 31%, compared with 31% last year.
Brazil’s external accounts registered a deficit of $ 50.7 billion, the worst result in the last four years, according to information published by the Central Bank. The report says that the result was caused by the trade balance, which in 2019 was $ 13.6 billion below the amount recorded in the previous year. Brazil’s trade surplus decreased from $ 53 billion in 2018 to $ 39.4 billion in 2019, reflecting retractions of 6, 3% in exports and 0.8% in imports.